F1 2013 - Pre-season

Intro

This is my first post to this blog, so welcome! I started this to share my thoughts and musings on motorsport, particularly F1. I'm obsessed with the sport and will talk about it to anyone who'll listen. A friend said I should start a blog (maybe he just wanted me to stop chewing his ear off all the time), so I have.

I'll be writing mostly about F1, giving my thoughts on the latest developments and updates on race weekends as they happen (at least I'm going to try). I'll also be posting about other forms of racing and cars and motorcyles in general from time to time too.

F1 2013 - Pre-season thoughts

All the cars have been revealed, all the drivers confirmed, and pre-season testing is complete. We are fewer than 10 days until the start of the season. Yes, practice 1 counts as the start of the season. I'll be watching it, will you?

US Fans - NBC Sports

If you're a fan in the US you surely know by now that NBC outbid Speed for the rights to air F1 in America and will be airing it for the next four years at least. I've read that they will be airing all three practices, quali, and the race, and all will be live. That's great news. If they're airing all three practices, that's even better coverage than Speed had (although they did stream practices 1 and 3 online). And some were concerned at first they would delay airing so people could watch at a reasonable time. But of course, F1 fans are not reasonable, they are crazy! I think many are like me, they like to follow along with live timing and other sources.

Driver Changes

The most talked about driver change surely has to be Lewis Hamilton's move from McLaren to Mercedes. Rarely do drivers move from a top team to any team that is not challenging for wins and championships. Unless they're winding up their career. But Hamilton is young, arguably at the top of his game, and has many seasons left in him. So there's been a lot of discussion about why. Hamilton himself says its because he wants a challenge. He's been with McLaren in some form or another since he was 13, and therefore has rarely been in a car that wasn't consistently fighting for wins and podiums. He's moving to a team with, in their current incarnation, only one win and a handful of podiums. It's a situation similar to the one Michael Schumacher found himself in when he moved to Ferrari. It was not, at the time, a dominant team, and it wasn't winning championships. Many credit Schumacher (and Ross Brawn, Hamilton's new boss at Mercedes) with turning that around and producing an unprecedented five straight drivers and constructors championships. Hamilton says he wants to do the same: Bring a team on the brink of championship contention over the hump and into a championship team. He says 2013 won't be the year it happens, but 2014 might. I have to agree. I don't think Mercedes will be able to close the gap to McLaren, Ferrari, and Red Bull this year, but with the vast scope of regulation changes in 2014, including a brand new engine formula which as an engine manufacturer Mercedes is well positioned to capitalize on, it may be possible as early as then.

I think there's more to it than that. He has also admitted he was tired of the many sponsorship events required of him at McLaren, of which there will be fewer at Mercedes. Others have pointed to the fact that he is now the top paid driver, but I don't think that matters to him quite so much (although he certainly wouldn't negotiate his pay down). I think the other unspoken reason is that of celebrity. Hamilton may be looking to expand his "brand" beyond F1. He may be well known in the world of F1 and motorsport, but ask someone who doesn't follow F1 who he is, and they probably won't have heard of him. I think he wants to take the same route as David Beckham, who is now a worldwide celebrity well apart from his football career. As part of Hamilton's move to Mercedes he dropped his former personal manager, an F1 manager (ugh, I can't find his name, sorry!), for the XIX management company, more of a celebrity management team. And of course, it all ties together. If he does manage to win a championship (or more) with Mercedes it will go a long way towards adding to his fame.

As part of this move comes the also fairly surprising news that McLaren signed the young Mexican Sergio "Checo" Perez as Hamilton's replacement. Good for Perez. He impressed me at Sauber this year, and he's got great potential. It's a risky move on McLaren's part; he is still really green. Sure, Hamilton nearly won the driver's championship in his rookie year at McLaren, but I don't think Perez is quite on that level. One benefit for McLaren is that Hamilton and Jenson Button had markedly different driving styles adding an unnecessary level of complexity to developing and setting up the car that you just don't want to deal with at the level of F1. Perez and Button are both smooth drivers, so the car can be well-suited to them both. McLaren's been struggling to get consistent results from both drivers, I think this will make it much easier on them. What one learns in setup will benefit the other. It's also good news for Button, whom I think has been driving a "Hamilton-style" car at McLaren since he joined in 2010. He's already said the car is more to his liking this year.

I've rambled on too long (Hamilton's move has caused SO much discussion), so I'll end with one more mention: Kamui Kobayashi. I'm sad to see him gone from Sauber and F1. He was talented, albeit erratic, and really fun to watch. His run to the podium in his home race in Japan was one of my favorite moments of the season.

Predictions

Ok, the fun part! How do I think the teams and drivers will fair this year? Well not much is going to change from 2012. There aren't any major regulation changes, and aside from Hamilton no major driver changes. The lineups at Ferrari and Red Bull remain unchanged. The team designers and managers are also relatively stable. I think we can expect Red Bull, Ferrari, and McLaren to come away with the lion's share of wins and podiums. It is also looking like the start may be as unpredictable as it was in 2012, with many different winners, possibly again from unexpected drivers and teams such as Maldonado at Williams and Rosberg at Mercedes.

My money, the safe money really, is on Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull to take WDC and WCC both for the fourth time. Everyone's going to improve their car over the season, and you can expect Adrian Newey with the resources at RBR to do an incredible job as usual. Given the speed of their car at the end of last season, other teams will need to make up that gap and then improve even more over the off season. That is a lot to ask, and nearly impossible to do when there are few to no regulation changes. Vettel will have the most wins this season. At least four or five. Mark Webber will have two or three.

Giving Red Bull the hardest time will likely be Ferrari. Ferrari hates losing, and you can bet they've been working full stop to improve their car. Given it was getting better by the end of 2012, and it's looking better in pre-season than it did at this time last year, I think they'll do even better throughout the season. And of course with a talent like Fernando Alonso, they are a formidable opponent. He will win three or four races. With the expected improvement in the car, I think Felipe Massa can manage at least one. He'll certainly need to, if he wants to stay at Ferrari.

McLaren are going through the most changes of the top three, having lost Hamilton. I love Button, and I think he's underrated (mainly because he is not very highly rated by most), but he's not as good as the three drivers commonly regarded as the best in the field (Vettel, Alonso, and Hamilton). Perez is young and not consistent enough yet to be a championship threat. Button will win a couple races, Perez maybe zero or one. It's going to be a tough year for McLaren fans like myself.

Mercedes are looking good in pre-season testing, even though Hamilton is trying hard to temper expectations for this season. With his skill, I suspect he'll manage a couple wins too. Will Nico Rosberg tally another win this year? I have to say, no, I don't think so.

I admit this is where my personal bias will shine through the most, because I really hope Lotus, and my favorite driver Kimi Raikkonen, do even better than last year. I think he'll win one race, possibly two.

If I'm adding up correctly, this doesn't leave much room for other winners. But if there is to be one, my pick for unexpected winner from an unexpected team this year is Nico Hulkenberg at Sauber.

I hope I haven't rambled on too long and you found this post interesting. See you next time race fans!